Wednesday, October 12, 2005

Thinking about purchasing dinar? Then you should read this……

The key issue behind whether or not your Iraqi dinar investment proves worthwhile is contingent upon Iraq’s economic and sociopolitical stability. It is indeed difficult to make an accurate prediction concerning Iraq’s future due to the immeasurable number of variables involved. As speculating investors, however, it is possible to obtain a fairly clear picture by ruling out those scenarios that have a low probability of success.

One of the first potential scenarios that should be considered for elimination, is the notion that the U.S. troops may suddenly retire from their work in Iraq, and that instability and chaos in Iraq would follow. The result of the up-coming November elections will likely shed light on the issue of the troops withdrawing from Iraq. If John Kerry defeated the current U.S. President, his military plans are to remain in Iraq until it is both socially and politically stable and governable. Kerry has taken advantage of several occasions to emphasize that not only that he intends to keep American troops in Iraq, but also that he may actually increase the number of soldiers stationed there. He has also voiced a plan to try to obtain the support of European nations to help accomplish the vital task of appeasing the people of Iraq.

If, on the other hand, George Bush is reelected as our President, all Americans know quite well that is not planning on leaving the soil of Iraq until peace and stability have been secured. Since both candidates share similar military objectives about troops’ deployment and maintenance in Iraq, it makes it highly unlikely for American troops to leave Iraqi soil for any reason other than success.

The second possible scenario that should be considered for elimination has to do with the two Muslim factions of Iraq, the Shiites and the Sunnis. Some have voiced the fear that rebels from these groups may join forces and overrule Iraq’s pro-American government, and defeat our allies military forces. The likelihood of this scenario is extremely slim, since American and its allies have remained very strong. Although the war in Iraq will probably last for a considerable length of time, the knowledge, training, and technological advantage posed by America and its allies is virtually impossible to defeat. Despite the vehement opposition of the present situation felt by the Iraqi rebels, they lack the resources, knowledge, and endurance to put up any kind of fight. Additionally, it is very unlikely that they will receive substantial, if any help from their Arab neighbors. Satellite and road checkpoints are only a few forms of detection that would unmask any efforts of this kind. Even if this was overcome, Arab countries are well aware of the hefty price to them if they were caught pursuing any such activities. In short, we can say with confidence that our possible second scenario can be eliminated due to the fact that this is highly improbable too.

A third major scenario that has been given considerable attention due to its deep negative ramifications concerns itself with the lack of economic resources is depletion of economic resources faced by the United States or its allies. Some fear that such a case would force the withdrawal of our troops from Iraq. Last year, our fiscal and commercial deficits were each approximately half of a trillion dollars, and Americans economic recovery this year is still not solid. Nevertheless, Iraq’s oil production, even with the periodic sabotages by the insurgent forces, remains more than sufficient to sustain America’s armed forces and their expenses, as well as to sustain the recovery of Iraq.

Read the rest here.

Regards Marcel.


Post a Comment

<< Home